Vermont’s Imperfect Ban on Socializing

Vermont on Friday toughened its travel-related quarantine requirements and basically imposed a ban on socializing. The rationale for this is hardly a mystery by now: COVID-19 is a communicable disease; we spread it to one another when we’re close enough to communicate. But our governor, Phil Scott, and our health commissioner, Dr. Mark Levine (Vermont’s Anthony Fauci), each of whom has served us nobly in this fight, did not clearly communicate their new policy. Rather than trash them for it, or poke holes in their advice, I will instead try to help out with some nuance and skepticism.

Why me? Well, before my tenure as a field biologist, I was a newspaper reporter and editor. After that, I taught public communications to graduate students at the University of Vermont. So I will try here to put these new restrictions into perspective (if not plainer language). Besides, the governor has just banned birdwatching or deer-hunting with friends — while still allowing us to go out to restaurants (as long as we sit at separate household tables). That warrants an explanation as well. (Oh, the state’s website messaging is also a bit of a mess right now, but I’ll address that in another post.)

Driving the new restrictions are two undeniable trends: The pandemic is worsening here in Vermont and even more so outside our borders, which is why we’ve fortified our quarantine policy. That’s good. Second, and more to the point, in Vermont the virus has of late been spreading mostly when we socialize at parties or other events — what the state, for better or worse, calls “multi-household social gatherings.”

So, effective on Saturday at 10PM, Governor Scott, in an update and extension of the executive order he imposed in March, will ban socializing at these gatherings, indoors our outside. The target is obvious: friends and neighbors getting together for Thanksgiving and Christmas, parties or any other kind of celebration or group socializing. We’ve all seen these gatherings, maybe even participated in them — people hanging out and having a good time. These need to stop until we slow the spread of the virus.

The problem is that safer forms of social engagement are caught up in the ban.

The problem is that safer forms of social engagement are caught up in the ban, which might undermine its acceptance among Vermonters. Technically, we can no longer meet up with a friend for a hike or cross-country skiing. Dog play dates are out. And, yeah, we can’t go birdwatching with our pals. These kinds of restrictions are drawing the ire of more than a few Vermonters, especially because the state will not yet shut down certain commerce, particularly restaurants. We cannot walk trails with friends wearing masks, yet we can still gather in restaurants, removing our masks to eat, except that now only members of one household can share a table. Governor Scott and Commissioner Levine might help their cause — and ours — with evidence of why that’s justified. (Bars, rightly so, are closed for now — except for takeout, even drinks).

Governor Scott, a Republican, allows science to drive his coronavirus policy. In this case, according to Levine, more than 70 percent of our recent wave of infections seem to be coming from the kind of group partying and socializing the state is now rightly banning. But I suspect that responsible, non-celebratory social interactions, like walking outside together or helping a neighbor split firewood, account for very little of our virus spread. It is one thing to hunt outside with your pals; it is another, and far more risky, to spend a weekend together at deer camp. Scott and Levine most likely recognize this as well, and the governor has all along all but looked the other way at minor transgressions of his edicts by repeatedly noting that none of this policy-making is perfect.

If epidemiologists can show us that indoor dining at household tables is relatively safe, despite new recognition that aerosol transmission happens, then let the policy stand. If not, then we all should be doing take-out and avoiding the gym for quite some time. (Ruth and I do not dine out indoors — and won’t for a long, long time; our go-to takeout here in Montpelier is the phenomenal Hippie Chickpea.)

Vermont has proven that we need not shut down our economy entirely and shelter in place (as we did last spring). Governor’s Scotts leadership has, until now, worked. We can get through the pandemic with the evidence of science and the precautions that have now become rooted in our behavior, not the least of which includes common sense.

If we must once again shut down indoor dining, which I suspect we will, or other sectors of the economy, then financial support for small businesses and their workers, from a functioning federal government (which, sadly, we do not have now) would also help. And if this coronavirus does indeed exploit human nature like a demagogue or dictator, well, at least the nation might head in a better direction on the pandemic once the failed demagogue (and aspiring dictator) leaves the White House on January 20. Good riddance.